Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
21/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (23 Jan, 24
Jan, 25 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 110
Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 22 Jan 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 004/005-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25

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