Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 311 km/s at
23/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24Jan). Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan) due to the anticipated
onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 105
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 006/005-006/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/25/20

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