Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan,
28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft peaked at 549 km/s at 26/1352Z. Total
IMF reached 15.9 nT at 26/1422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -12.7 nT at 25/2254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV reached a
peak flux of 118 pfu at geosynchronous orbit.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for day one (27 Jan) decreasing to quiet
to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 099
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 013/020-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 40/10/10

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