Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 590 km/s at 27/0533Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 098
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 095/095/110
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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