Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan,
31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at
28/2340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 095
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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