Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/0819Z from Region 1669 (N08E52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at
05/0601Z. Total IMF reached 6.1 nT at 05/0408Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.5 nT at 05/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 105
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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