Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2013

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 7, 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at
07/1936Z. Total IMF reached 10.2 nT at 07/0519Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9.1 nT at 07/0541Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next three days (08 Feb, 09
Feb, 10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 103
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 014/022-011/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/20

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