Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2013

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 10, 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
09/2223Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/0048Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 10/0414Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 Feb, 12
Feb, 13 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 106
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 005/005-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/10

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