Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/1755Z from Region 1670 (N17W42). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
12/0512Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 11/2153Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.7 nT at 12/2012Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 102
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05

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