Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2013

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 17, 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1550Z from Region 1675 (N12E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
403 km/s at 16/2302Z. Total IMF reached 9.5 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 17/1417Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 106
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/008-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/15

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