Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1435Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
23/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27
Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 095
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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