Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 369 km/s at
25/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1320Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 364 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 095
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 004/005-004/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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