Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
27/2035Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0758Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/0314Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 Feb, 02 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) with a chance for active levels.

III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 102
Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/25

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