Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
28/1956Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1735Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/1917Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 106
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/25/10

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