Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Mar,
03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 684 km/s at 01/1941Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 01/0818Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 01/0819Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (04 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 113
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 115/118/120
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 013/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/20

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