Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1511Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
693 km/s at 02/0509Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0735Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2248Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3800 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 111
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 111/109/108
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 023/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 009/010-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/30
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/40

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