Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 March 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
562 km/s at 02/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1837Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0124Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5517 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar,
05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 112
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 010/008-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25

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