Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar,
01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 623 km/s at 29/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0325Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0151Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1535
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 10/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 108
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 007/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10

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