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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2015

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, August 10, 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 582 km/s at 10/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1559 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 106
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15

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