NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Mar 2002


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 01 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Several C-class events
occurred, the largest being a C9.7 flare at 01/0012 UTC.  No
corresponding optical flare report was received for this event, but
SOHO/EIT imagery suggests that Region 9845 (N17W04) was the source. 
Two type-II radio sweep events occurred during the period.  The
first was at 01/0214 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 1200 km/s. 
SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast CME from a source behind the
southwest limb at this time, though not appearing earth-directed. 
The second sweep had an estimated velocity of 742 km/s and occurred
at 01/0542 UTC, shortly after an impulsive C7/Sf from Region 9848
(S20W21) at 01/0531 UTC.  However, no CME activity was evident in
LASCO imagery following this event.  Two new regions were numbered
today:  9851 (S07E56), and 9852 (N16E66).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  Region 9845 is a possible
source for isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A
sustained period of southward IMF, following a weak interplanetary
shock passage early on 28 February, caused active and isolated minor
storm conditions at higher latitudes during 28/2100 - 01/0300 UTC. 
Activity has been predominantly quiet since then.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until the onset of high
speed stream effects from a recurrent coronal hole begin to develop
by day three of the forecast period.  Isolated active conditions are
anticipated thereafter.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 188
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  005/006-005/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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