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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 6, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 765 km/s at 06/0324Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8106 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 072
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  015/018-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/15

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