From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, January 8, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 08/1742Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan), quiet levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 072
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/013-006/008-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/30
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