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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2017

Status Report From:
Posted: Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 09/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36708 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 073
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 073/071/071
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  007/008-008/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/30

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