From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 11/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8687 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 075
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 074/073/075
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/30/25
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