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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 11/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8687 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 075
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 074/073/075
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/010-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/30/25

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