From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 16, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 16/0418Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3085 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 078
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 007/008-018/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/70/60
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