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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0326Z from Region 2635 (N13E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 09/1926Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13674 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 073
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

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