From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, February 10, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/2332Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 074
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 075/075/078
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20
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