From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 16, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 16/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 16/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/1326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1005 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 074
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 011/012-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/20
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