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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 26, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 25/2234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 956 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 079
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 079/077/077
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  005/005-010/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/60

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