From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 15/2037Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5795 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 070
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/071/072
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 006/005-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/10
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