Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, March 16, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 16/0043Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0455Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1352 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 071
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 071/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10

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