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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 March 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, March 17, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 17/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 360 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 071
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10




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