From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, March 17, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 17/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 071
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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