From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, March 31, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/1737Z from Region 2645 (S10E01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 771 km/s at 31/1103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24539 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 091
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 093/095/095
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 021/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 019/025-019/022-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/30/15
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