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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, April 2, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 02/2033Z from Region 2644 (N12W65). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 62136 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (05 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    60/60/40
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 112
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 105/100/097
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  008/008-006/007-005/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20

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