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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 16/0601Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 072
Predicted   17 May-19 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  017/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  021/030-021/030-033/050

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    15/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/30

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