From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 16/0601Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 072
Predicted 17 May-19 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 017/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 021/030-021/030-033/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 40/40/40
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
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