From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, May 18, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 17/2148Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 May), active to minor storm levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 072
Predicted 19 May-21 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 18 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 031/045-024/030-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 35/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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