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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 June 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, June 19, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 19/0247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 074
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 075/075/072
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/15

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