From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, June 19, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 19/0247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 074
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 075/075/072
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/15
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