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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, July 14, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0209Z from Region 2665 (S06W43). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 13/2148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13 pfu at 14/1055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to major storm levels on day two (16 Jul) and active to major storm levels on day three (17 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     75/50/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 094
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  014/015-019/035-028/045

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           15/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/20/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    50/75/79

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