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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, July 15, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 15/1936Z from Region 2665 (S05W57). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 14/2231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 14/2320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 723 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 Jul), active to major storm levels on day two (17 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Jul). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     55/30/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 092
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 092/092/090
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  019/035-028/045-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor Storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    75/79/50

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