From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, August 8, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 08/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10425 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 071
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/30
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