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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/1132Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7825 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 072
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  005/005-006/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/30/45

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