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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, August 10, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 10/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6774 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 071
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 072/072/071
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/40

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