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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, August 12, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 736 km/s at 12/1100Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 920 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 070
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20

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