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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 September 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, September 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09/1104Z from Region 2673 (S09W83). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (10 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (11 Sep) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 08/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/2105Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 08/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6358 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (10 Sep, 12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    70/25/01
Class X    35/05/01
Proton     25/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 107
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 095/085/083
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  050/117
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15

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