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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 September 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 12/2116Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 12/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 12/2257Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu at 12/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2410 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (14 Sep), are expected to cross threshold on day two (15 Sep) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (16 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     95/80/60
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 075
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  021/028-020/026-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/60/50


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