From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 11/2029Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 070
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 013/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 023/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 024/030-024/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/60
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