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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 09/0016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20291 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 066
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 066/066/068
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  039/047
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  023/028-017/024-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/45/35

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