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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 14/1525Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/0940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12790 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 074
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  011/015-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/30


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