From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, December 2, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 01/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 184 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Dec), quiet to major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and active to major storm levels on day three (05 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 072
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-022/032-029/048
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/35/40
Major-severe storm 01/20/20
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/75/79
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