Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, December 3, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/1107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1922Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Dec), active to major storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 070
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 032/048/018
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  022/032-029/048-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           35/40/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/79/60

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